Imagine you’re bored one day and decide to start flipping a coin just to pass the time. The first flip lands on heads. The second flip also lands on heads. Then the third. That’s a little unlikely. To your surprise, the fourth flip also lands on heads. At this point, you pause to consider the…
Tag: Probability
The definition of insanity
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. This well-circulated quote is often attributed to Albert Einstein. I find it somewhat strange in that that is clearly not “the definition of insanity”. Insanity has multiple definitions. “Sane” and “insane” come from the Latin word for health. In…
Probability estimation vs probability calculation
If I take the bus downtown today, what are the chances I’ll run into my friend (let’s call her Alice)? Suppose I’m on the bus for an hour. According to the local metro, there are approximately 31 people using a single bus per hour of operation. Assume that during the hour I’m on the bus…
The paradox of incentive
If something is incentivized too strongly, it becomes disincentivized. Extrinsic motivation has important social utility. It can both drive prosocial behavior and inhibit antisocial behavior. In many cases, extrinsic rewards are natural. Praise is a natural response to someone doing something we want them to do, for example, as is expressing anger towards someone for…
Why do unlikely things happen?
I find that people often seem to have trouble understanding how an unlikely event can occur. I have heard people ascribe supernatural causes to such events, and I have also heard people express incredulity at the event occurring at all. This is one of many ways in which probability can be counterintuitive. We usually expect…
